The Scottish Government will this afternoon set out the details of their draft Referendum Bill to Parliament. The Opposition parties have been swift to criticise the latest move by First Minister Alex Salmond.

The main points that the opposition parties are focussing on are as follows:

• We've already had a national conversation which has been expensive and not produced any results
• There continues to be no mandate for independence
• The SNP have already rejected opportunities to table a bill in the second year of its administration
• The Bill is being published in draft form which suggests the SNP do not have strength of conviction to get the legislation through
• Feeds into a theme of ongoing constitutional uncertainty which is damaging for Scotland plc
• The administration should be focussing on protecting jobs and not constitutional separation
• This is a cynical and manipulative ploy

However, it will be argued that First Minister has sensed that his chances of a successful outcome in a referendum are slowly ebbing away. He understands that if he sends his Bill to Parliament now, it will be swiftly rejected by the Opposition, who hold a number of parliamentary factors in their advantage. Therefore, he has taken the decision to consult on independence, which further delays the process and continues to make it an issue, for at least the next Parliamentary session.

As we move towards a general election the likely outcome for the keys to Downing Street is between Brown and Cameron, with the SNP on current polling unlikely to achieve the 20 seat target that the First Minister set. It is thought that he is hoping that the SNP can increase its Westminster representation to double figures while the Conservatives fail to register significant wins across Scotland.

In the current likely event of a hung parliament, the SNP, with a small coterie of nationalist MPs - though significantly bigger than the Scottish Conservative representation - will be able to argue that the Tories have no mandate to govern Scotland and that the natural conclusion is for independence for Scotland.

The draft Bill proposes asking two questions on two separate ballot papers.
Firstly, voters would be asked to vote 'yes' or 'no' on whether they support the Scottish Parliament being given new devolved powers.

The consultation paper offers two alternatives for this question, one based on the so-called "devolution max" option of giving Holyrood control of everything except defence, foreign affairs and financial regulation, and another based on the more limited powers put forward by the Calman Commission.

They will then be asked whether: "The parliament's powers should also be extended to enable independence to be achieved."


-Ends-

Contact:

John Mullin
Managing Director Scotland
Citigate Dewe Rogerson
Tel: 0131 225 8052